# Gold breathes, the world holds its breath<\/p>\n
After a tense October, gold is returning to balance. Two weeks of consolidation were enough to recall that no ascent is linear: the ounce, stabilised around $4,000, is pausing after a historic nine-month rally. The markets speak of a correction; in reality, it is the breathing of an asset that has become the planetary barometer of confidence.<\/p>\n
Between mid-October and the end of the month, the yellow metal lost around eleven per cent. The decline was sharp, but not irrational. It is explained first by a technical unwinding of speculative positions: leveraged funds, which had bet on a rapid extension beyond $4,200 an ounce, carried out automatic sales as soon as supports broke on the New York futures markets.<\/p>\n
At the same time, the dollar firmed: the prospect of a US CPI at 3.1% and a more cautious Federal Reserve pushed currency traders back toward the greenback. A stronger dollar mechanically weighs on the price of dollar-denominated gold.<\/p>\n
Finally, the geopolitical easing between Washington and Beijing, with the announcement of a bilateral summit in Asia, briefly drove safe-haven demand back down. In short, the correction results from a triple movement: technical, monetary and psychological.<\/p>\n
Yet behind this surface pullback, the structure of the market has not moved. Physical volumes remain stable and central bank demand is not weakening. The World Gold Council indicates that monetary institutions bought nearly 200 tonnes in the third quarter, bringing the annual projection to between 750 and 900 tonnes. Even after more than 3,000 tonnes accumulated in three years, the thirst of states for metal remains intact. This differential, speculative withdrawal on paper and constant buying on physical metal, anchors the underlying trend: value is not leaving the metal.<\/p>\n
Long-term optimism, for its part, has not moved. At the LBMA’s annual conference, delegates mentioned a median target of $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, a potential gain of around 25% from current levels. HSBC, Bank of America and Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale share this projection. The British consultancy Metals Focus adds a parallel anticipation for silver, expected at $60 an ounce in 2026. For many analysts, the current pause does not signal exhaustion, but an accumulation zone: gold is catching its breath before resuming its march.<\/p>\n
In the background, global debt has replaced fear as the driver. US public debt now exceeds $38 trillion, an additional $1 trillion in two months, and this without a crisis. The IMF forecasts that global debt will reach 99% of planetary GDP by 2026. Once, debt was a source of concern; today, it structures the markets. Every billion issued feeds the base of gold: the more currency there is, the rarer the store of value becomes. That is why, despite the technical corrections, no serious economist uses the word \u00ab\u00a0bubble\u00a0\u00bb any longer. Gold is not expensive; it is the currency that has been devalued.<\/p>\n
In this silent recomposition of capital, private investors are reorganising. The short term is emptying of its speculators, wealth is refocusing on physical metal, and the major Asian central banks (China, India, South Korea) are considering additional purchases over the medium and long term, their first since 2013 in Seoul’s case. Gold is becoming less a bet than a parallel monetary infrastructure. Its function is no longer defensive: it is systemic.<\/p>\n
The market has held, and so have the fundamentals. We have entered a phase in which stability is worth a rise. A metal consolidating at $4,000 after two years of rally remains a strong metal. Forecasts of $5,000 an ounce are not promises, but the reflection of a consensus: the world no longer deleverages, it adapts. And in this unstable equilibrium, gold is not a refuge; it is the centre of gravity.<\/p>\n
—<\/p>\n
The main indicator of US inflation. When it rises, the markets anticipate higher rates, which strengthens the dollar and temporarily weighs on gold.<\/p>\n
The use of debt to amplify the gains of an investment. During a reversal, these positions are liquidated en masse, accentuating the decline.<\/p>\n
A key price threshold where demand becomes sufficient to halt a decline. Its breach often triggers automatic selling.<\/p>\n
Operators specialised in currencies whose movements directly influence the price of gold quoted in dollars.<\/p>\n
The execution of pre-programmed orders when certain price levels are reached, amplifying the movements.<\/p>\n
A period of stabilisation during which long-term investors strengthen their positions.<\/p>\n
National monetary institutions (ECB, Fed, PBOC, etc.) that hold gold to guarantee the credibility of their currency.<\/p>\n
One of the world’s leading bodies for the trade in precious metals destined for financial institutions.<\/p>\n
A professional body that measures global gold production and demand.<\/p>\n
The reference unit for institutional transactions (1 tonne = 32,150 ounces).<\/p>\n
A temporary pullback after a strong rise, allowing the market to stabilise without a trend reversal.<\/p>\n
Between mid-October and the end of the month, gold lost around eleven per cent, a decline that was sharp but not irrational. Three forces combined. First, a technical unwinding of speculative positions: leveraged funds that had bet on a rapid extension beyond $4,200 an ounce carried out automatic sales as soon as supports broke on the New York futures markets. Second, the dollar firmed on the prospect of a US CPI at 3.1% and a more cautious Federal Reserve, which mechanically weighs on the price of dollar-denominated gold. Third, the geopolitical easing between Washington and Beijing briefly reduced safe-haven demand. The correction was therefore technical, monetary and psychological at once, not a reversal of the trend. You can follow the current gold price<\/a> to see how the market is stabilising.<\/p>\n No. Behind the surface pullback, the structure of the market has not moved. Physical volumes remain stable and central bank demand is not weakening: the World Gold Council reports nearly 200 tonnes bought by monetary institutions in the third quarter, with an annual projection between 750 and 900 tonnes, even after more than 3,000 tonnes accumulated in three years. Long-term optimism is equally intact: at the LBMA’s annual conference, delegates mentioned a median target of $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, a projection shared by HSBC, Bank of America and Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale. For many analysts, the current pause is an accumulation zone in which gold catches its breath before resuming its march, not a sign of exhaustion.<\/p>\n Central banks buy gold because it guarantees the credibility of their currencies in a world saturated with debt. According to the World Gold Council, monetary institutions acquired nearly 200 tonnes in the third quarter alone, bringing the annual projection to between 750 and 900 tonnes, and this after more than 3,000 tonnes accumulated over three years. The movement is also widening: the major Asian central banks, including China, India and South Korea, are considering additional purchases over the medium and long term, the first for Seoul since 2013. Gold is becoming less a bet than a parallel monetary infrastructure. Its function is no longer defensive but systemic, which explains why official demand does not weaken even when speculative positions unwind on the futures markets.<\/p>\n Global debt has replaced fear as the driver of the gold market. US public debt now exceeds $38 trillion, having grown by an additional $1 trillion in just two months and without a crisis, while the IMF forecasts that global debt will reach 99% of planetary GDP by 2026. Every billion issued feeds the base of gold: the more currency there is, the rarer the store of value becomes. That is why no serious economist uses the word \u00ab\u00a0bubble\u00a0\u00bb any longer, and why gold’s rise is inseparable from the erosion of gold and purchasing power<\/a> relationships in fiat currencies. Gold is not expensive; it is the currency that has been devalued, and the world no longer deleverages, it adapts.<\/p>\n The consensus remains firmly constructive. At the LBMA’s annual conference, delegates mentioned a median target of $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, a potential gain of around 25% from current levels, and this projection is shared by HSBC, Bank of America and Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale. The British consultancy Metals Focus adds a parallel anticipation for silver, expected at $60 an ounce in 2026. Forecasts of $5,000 an ounce are not promises but the reflection of a consensus built on unchanged fundamentals: stable physical volumes, persistent central bank demand and record global debt. A metal consolidating at $4,000 after two years of rally remains a strong metal, and in this unstable equilibrium gold is not a refuge but the centre of gravity of the monetary system.<\/p>\n Periods of consolidation are historically when long-term investors strengthen their positions, and the current pause is no exception: speculative withdrawal on paper contrasts with constant buying on physical metal. For a private investor, the essential point is to favour tangible, certified assets over leveraged instruments. Gold & Silver Company produces its own certified gold bars<\/a>, approved by the Belgian State and sealed in CertiCard according to international standards. Our gold guide<\/a> explains how to choose between bars and coins, and you can book an appointment<\/a> at the agency for personalised advice, so that every purchase is made with complete transparency and confidence.<\/p>\n Updated on September 27, 2026<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Gold breathes, the world holds its breath: gold in a waiting period.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":165,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-607","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualite"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/607\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/165"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}Does this correction mean the uptrend in gold is over?<\/h3>\n
Why do central banks keep buying gold?<\/h3>\n
What role does global debt play in the gold price?<\/h3>\n
What do analysts expect for gold by 2026?<\/h3>\n
Is now a good time to buy physical gold?<\/h3>\n