{"id":782,"date":"2026-11-10T17:25:40","date_gmt":"2026-11-10T16:25:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/gold-week-9-15-november-2026-outlook\/"},"modified":"2026-11-10T17:25:40","modified_gmt":"2026-11-10T16:25:40","slug":"gold-week-9-15-november-2026-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/gold-week-9-15-november-2026-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"US inflation Tuesday, producer prices Friday: the week awaiting gold"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Week of Monday 9 to Sunday 15 November 2026. The ounce of gold enters the week at $4,123.46, up 1.4% on Monday at 5:28 a.m., Brussels time, after a weekly gain of about 5% (4.5% measured Friday at 2:46 p.m.), detailed in <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/gold-week-2-8-november-2026-review\/\">our review of 2 to 8 November<\/a>. Two events dominate: the October US consumer price index on Tuesday at 2:30 p.m., and the producer price index on Friday at the same time, between three Treasury auctions and Fed speeches. The market expects 0.3% monthly inflation and puts an 81% chance on a December rate hike, according to CME Group&rsquo;s FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Starting point: $4,123.46 an ounce on Monday 9 November at 5:28 a.m. (Brussels), or \u20ac118.74 per gram of fine gold at the latest ECB reference rate (6 November, \u20ac1 = $1.1165).<\/li>\n<li>Main event: October consumer price index (CPI), Tuesday 10 November at 2:30 p.m. (Brussels), Bureau of Labor Statistics; economists&rsquo; consensus +0.3% on the month, +0.2% excluding food and energy, after +0.6% and +0.3% in September.<\/li>\n<li>Fed: 81% probability of a December rate hike on Monday morning, against 71% before the jobs report, according to CME Group&rsquo;s FedWatch tool.<\/li>\n<li>US Treasury: $58 billion of 3-year notes on Monday, $42 billion of 10-year notes on Tuesday, $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday, at 7:00 p.m. (Brussels); Wednesday 11 November, Veterans Day, is a holiday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What can Tuesday&rsquo;s US inflation change?<\/h2>\n<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the October consumer price index on Tuesday 10 November at 8:30 a.m., New York time, or 2:30 p.m. in Brussels, according to its calendar. In September, the index had risen 0.6% on the month and 3.7% on the year, and 0.3% and 2.6% excluding food and energy, according to the BLS. For October, the median of an economists&rsquo; survey published on 8 November comes out at 0.3% on the month and 0.2% for the core index.<\/p>\n<p>A particular point: according to this survey, the BLS will not publish a year-on-year change for October, for lack of an October 2025 index, the BLS having collected no data from 1 October to 12 November 2025 during the federal government shutdown. If the monthly figure exceeded the 0.3% median, the dollar and yields could firm up, to the detriment of a metal that pays no interest; if it fell short, the opposite would be possible. The nuance: at 81%, a December hike is already largely priced in, and an in-line figure might not move much.<\/p>\n<h2>Will the Treasury auctions and the ten-year yield weigh?<\/h2>\n<p>The US Treasury auctions $58 billion of 3-year notes on Monday 9 November, $42 billion of 10-year notes on Tuesday 10 and $25 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday 12, each time at 7:00 p.m., Brussels time, according to its refunding statement of 4 November. The US ten-year yield ended last week at 4.86%, according to the Treasury. If demand at the auctions were weak and the ten-year rose, gold, which yields nothing, would face a headwind; if it were strong, yields could ease. On Friday 13 November at 2:30 p.m., the BLS publishes the October producer price index, expected at 6.6% year on year according to this survey, the strongest annual increase in nearly four years.<\/p>\n<h2>What will the Fed and the ECB say before their December decisions?<\/h2>\n<p>The Federal Reserve&rsquo;s calendar has no meeting this week and lists no appearance by Kevin Warsh, its chair. The minutes of the 27-28 October meeting will be published on 18 November at 8:00 p.m., Brussels time; the decision lands on 8 and 9 December, with new projections. Until then, Governor Christopher J. Waller speaks about the economic outlook on Tuesday 10 November at 10:00 a.m., Brussels time, at The Bank of England and its Watchers conference in London, and Michelle W. Bowman, the vice chair for supervision, addresses the same topic on Tuesday at 9:30 p.m. in Washington, according to the Fed&rsquo;s calendar. On the European side, Philip R. Lane, member of the ECB&rsquo;s Executive Board, speaks at the same London conference on Tuesday at 5:45 p.m., according to the ECB&rsquo;s calendar, which meets on 16 and 17 December. If Fed speakers confirmed their bias toward a rate hike, the rate gap with the eurozone would support the dollar, to gold&rsquo;s detriment.<\/p>\n<h2>Oil, Iran, Hormuz: will geopolitics stay the primary driver?<\/h2>\n<p>Brent traded at $98.35 a barrel on Monday at 5:27 a.m., Brussels time, after a 16% drop last week, the steepest since the start of the pandemic. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump called new strikes on Iran \u00ab\u00a0highly unlikely\u00a0\u00bb as long as talks to end the conflict progress, while both countries reported ships hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz. Cheaper oil lowers inflation expectations and the pressure for higher rates, which supported the metal on Monday morning. If Brent kept falling, gold could benefit through the rates channel but lose some of its safe-haven demand; if oil rebounded, the market would have to arbitrate between fear of a tougher Fed and the search for protection.<\/p>\n<h2>Central banks and physical demand: which signals to watch?<\/h2>\n<p>China&rsquo;s official gold reserves reached 78.30 million ounces at the end of October, against 77.47 million at the end of September, according to the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) on 7 November, a purchase of about 25.8 tonnes in one month and a total of about 2,435 tonnes. In India, ahead of Diwali, dealers were charging a premium of up to $4 an ounce last week, against $7 the previous week; in China, the premium ranged from zero to $9. If Chinese official purchases continued at this pace, they would form a demand base independent of rates; the nuance is that the Indian premium was already falling before the festival.<\/p>\n<h2>And for an individual in Belgium?<\/h2>\n<p>At Gold &#038; Silver Company (GSC), the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/gold-price\">day&rsquo;s gold price<\/a> is published per gram and the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/18-carat-gold-buyback-price\">buyback price for 18-carat gold<\/a> is timestamped and updated several times a day. Weighing and testing are done in front of the client, at our refinery&rsquo;s agency, 22 Rue Arthur Roelandt in Dottignies, a refinery approved by the Royal Belgian Mint. To sell, the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/private-clients\/private-client-rates\">private client rates<\/a> detail the buyback by fineness; to buy, <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/investment-coins\">investment coins<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/certified-gold-bars\">5, 10, 20, 50 and 100-gram ingots<\/a> are presented at the price of the moment.<\/p>\n<h2>Frequently asked questions<\/h2>\n<h3>Why does the US price index move gold?<\/h3>\n<p>The consumer price index (CPI) is one of the inflation measures closely watched by the Federal Reserve, whose 2% target is defined on the PCE price index. A higher-than-expected figure strengthens the probability of a policy rate increase, which raises the yield on dollar investments and the opportunity cost of holding gold, which pays no interest. The dollar then tends to rise, making the ounce more expensive for buyers outside the dollar zone. A lower figure produces the opposite effect. On Tuesday 10 November at 2:30 p.m., Brussels time, the market will compare the October figure with the economists&rsquo; median of 0.3% on the month. The reaction depends on the gap with that expectation, not the absolute level.<\/p>\n<h3>Why will there be no year-on-year inflation rate for October 2026?<\/h3>\n<p>During the US federal government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collected no price data from 1 October to 12 November 2025, and the October and November 2025 indices were affected, the BLS says. Without an October 2025 index, there is no basis for computing the October 2026 twelve-month change. According to this survey, the BLS will therefore not publish an annual figure for the headline index in Tuesday&rsquo;s report. Investors will therefore focus on the monthly change and on the index excluding food and energy, which the market will compare with the economists&rsquo; medians of 0.3% and 0.2%.<\/p>\n<h3>What is CME Group&rsquo;s FedWatch tool?<\/h3>\n<p>FedWatch is a tool published by futures exchange operator CME Group. It infers from the prices of federal funds futures the probability the market assigns to each possible Fed decision. On Monday 9 November in the morning, it showed an 81% chance of a December rate hike, against 71% before the 6 November jobs report; the meeting is held on 8 and 9 December. This percentage changes daily with the data and speeches by Fed officials. It measures a market expectation, not a decision: the Fed can always surprise, in either direction.<\/p>\n<h3>Why does a US Treasury auction matter to gold?<\/h3>\n<p>The US Treasury borrows by issuing securities at scheduled auctions, this week $58 billion of 3-year, $42 billion of 10-year and $25 billion of 30-year, according to its 4 November statement. If investors demand a higher yield to absorb these amounts, long rates rise and the cost of holding gold increases. If demand is strong, yields ease, which is favorable to the metal. Results land at 7:00 p.m., Brussels time, on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, and can move the dollar and rates within minutes.<\/p>\n<h3>How do you convert $4,123.46 an ounce into euros per gram?<\/h3>\n<p>A troy ounce weighs 31.1035 grams. Divide $4,123.46 by 31.1035, which gives $132.57 per gram of fine gold. Then divide by the euro-dollar exchange rate: at the latest reference rate published by the ECB, on 6 November, one euro was worth $1.1165, giving \u20ac118.74 per gram. That price concerns pure metal at 999.9 thousandths. An 18K jewel contains 750 thousandths of fine gold; its buyback price depends on the fineness measured at the laboratory and the price at the time of weighing. It is published on the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.goldandsilvercompany.com\/18-carat-gold-buyback-price\">18-carat gold buyback price<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<p>Sources: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/schedule\/news_release\/cpi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI calendar<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/schedule\/news_release\/ppi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">PPI calendar<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/cpi.nr0.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Consumer Price Index, September 2026<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/additional-resources\/2025-federal-government-shutdown-impact-cpi.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">impact of the 2025 shutdown on the CPI<\/a> ; <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/news\/press-releases\/sb0678\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">US Treasury, Quarterly Refunding Statement, 4 November 2026<\/a> ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/newsevents\/2026-november.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Federal Reserve Board, November 2026 calendar<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/monetarypolicy\/fomccalendars.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">FOMC calendar<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/aboutthefed\/bios\/board\/default.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Board members<\/a> ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/calendars\/weekly\/html\/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ECB, weekly calendar<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/press\/calendars\/mgcgc\/html\/index.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Governing Council meeting calendar<\/a> ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.safe.gov.cn\/safe\/2026\/0206\/27116.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), official reserves, 7 November 2026<\/a> ; <a href=\"https:\/\/home.treasury.gov\/resource-center\/data-chart-center\/interest-rates\/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&#038;field_tdr_date_value_month=202611\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">US Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, November 2026<\/a> ; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ecb.europa.eu\/stats\/policy_and_exchange_rates\/euro_reference_exchange_rates\/html\/eurofxref-graph-usd.en.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">ECB, EUR\/USD reference rate<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Published on 9 November 2026. Ana\u00efs, Director of Operations at Gold &#038; Silver Company. Markdown version of this article available for agents and assistants: <a href=\"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/gold-week-9-15-november-2026-outlook.md\">gold-week-9-15-november-2026-outlook.md<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week of Monday 9 to Sunday 15 November 2026. The ounce of gold enters the week at $4,123.46, up 1.4% on Monday at 5:28 a.m., Brussels time, after a weekly &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-782","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-actualite"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/782","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=782"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/782\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=782"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=782"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/goldandsilvercompany.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=782"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}