# October 2025: gold crosses $4,000 an ounce. Necessity, not speculation
A symbolic threshold in a wavering world
This October 2025, gold has crossed the symbolic threshold of $4,000 an ounce, a level that until now seemed reserved for the boldest projections. For some, this level is a signal of caution; for others, it is striking proof that confidence in fiat currencies is eroding. Gold is not climbing out of speculation; it is climbing out of necessity. In a world where balances are wavering, the yellow metal remains the only value that neither the economic climate nor balance sheets can erase.
A structural dynamic, not a bubble peak
Broken resistances and investment flows
Since late 2022, gold has broken through forty-one resistance levels, recording the fastest progression of the decade. The World Gold Council reports that investment in gold-backed ETFs jumped by 221.7 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025 (roughly $26 billion). This record demand has propelled global holdings to within 2% of their 2020 all-time high. On the physical side, the tension is already being felt: investment bars are becoming scarcer and premiums are widening, especially on the 5 to 100 gram formats.
Central banks: caution becomes strategy
Europe: diversification and strategic bedrock
In Europe, central banks are strengthening their exposure to gold. An OMFIF survey (June 2025) indicates that a third of them plan to increase their reserves within two years, a level unseen since 2019. In Frankfurt, a senior ECB official recently acknowledged that the metal now plays a diversification role that is « indispensable in a context of persistent geopolitical risk. » In Brussels, the National Bank of Belgium maintains its own at around 227 tonnes, a strategic bedrock deemed « incompressible. » Caesar’s maxim, « Horum omnium fortissimi sunt Belgae, » has never seemed more current: Belgian caution is not timidity; it is foresight.
Currencies under pressure, safe-haven reflex
The dollar, weakened by record public deficits and the prospect of monetary easing, is fuelling the rise. * »Gold has shown in the past that it is an asset of choice when tariff tensions are ratcheted up, »* analyst Tim Waterer (KCM Trade) recently recalled. This observation captures the period: every tension, every doubt about the solidity of currencies or markets triggers a safe-haven reflex. Demand for gold is no longer a speculative movement, but a silent vote against the fragility of the system.
Physical supply tightens: scarcity sets in
Yet physical supply is no longer keeping pace. Certain major industrial players, such as Umicore, have chosen to liquidate their stocks to convert gold into cash. This accounting-driven decision reduces the quantity of metal available on the market and accentuates the scarcity of the real stock. At the same time, industrial recycling is not offsetting the rush towards direct ownership. In refining workshops, orders are rising faster than the inflow of raw material. Whoever holds the metal, the real metal, now holds the strategic lever.
The limits of « leased metal »
The « leased metal » model (gold leasing), very much in vogue among large financial groups, is reaching its limits. Leasing gold amounts to borrowing stability in an unstable world. When the price climbs, returning the same quantity becomes a headache: the margin melts away, hedging costs explode, and the premiums imposed on the end client become unsustainable. The system holds as long as confidence remains. In an era of continuous rises and tensions over physical deliveries, this model is eroding inexorably.
Direct ownership: patrimonial sovereignty
Conversely, those who hold their metal outright (individuals, collectors, specialised houses) are consolidating their sovereignty. They do not need to hedge: their hedge is the metal itself. They do not depend on rates: their yield is the value of time. They do not speculate: they preserve. This is the philosophy Gold & Silver Company has championed for more than a decade: restoring to the possession of metal a patrimonial, independent and tangible dimension.
Lessons from previous cycles
The parallel with previous cycles is striking. In 2011, commentators were already announcing « the end of the cycle » at $1,900; three years later, those who had held firm had become the pioneers of the rebound. Today, the same psychology is repeating itself: analysts dread the correction, but gold keeps advancing. The « fear of the peak » is often the sign that the peak is not yet here.
Conclusion: the real risk
Peter Drucker wrote: « The best way to predict the future is to create it. » Gold, since antiquity, has never needed to predict the future: it embodies it. Cycles change, currencies are renewed, but the value of the metal endures. While the screens panic, one simple truth remains: the real risk is not owning too much gold, but owning too little. Time will judge those who doubted. As for those who held the line, they will not be called speculators, but guardians of the real.
Vocabulary of the metal
– Troy ounce: the international unit of measurement for precious metals (1 troy ounce = 31.1035 grams).
– ETF (Exchange Traded Fund): an exchange-traded fund that replicates the price of gold without delivering physical metal.
– OMFIF: the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a think tank that publishes studies on monetary policies and the gold reserves of central banks.
– LBMA: the London Bullion Market Association, the global reference body that certifies refineries and sets the purity standards for gold bars.
– Premium: the difference between the « spot » price and the real price paid by the buyer (includes fabrication, logistics and scarcity).
– Refining: the process of purifying raw metal to reach investment purity (often 999.9 for gold).
– Leased metal / gold leasing: a loan of physical gold by a bank to an industrial user, repaid in metal rather than in money.
– Physical reserve: the actual quantity of gold held outright, as opposed to paper contracts or derivative products.
– Monetary diversification: the strategy used by central banks to reduce their dependence on the dollar by increasing the share of gold.
– Investment metal: gold, silver, platinum or palladium held in the form of bars, coins or ingots to preserve value.
*Updated on 27 September 2026.*
Frequently asked questions about gold
Why did gold exceed $4,000 an ounce in October 2025?
The rise reflects a structural dynamic rather than a passing surge. Central banks are diversifying their reserves at a pace unseen since 2019, according to the OMFIF survey of June 2025, while the dollar weakens under record public deficits and the prospect of monetary easing. Geopolitical tensions reinforce a permanent safe-haven reflex, and physical supply is tightening at the same time: investment bars are becoming scarcer and premiums are widening, particularly on the 5 to 100 gram formats. Gold-backed ETFs absorbed 221.7 tonnes in the third quarter of 2025 alone. To place each daily movement in context and follow the reference rate used by professionals, you can consult the gold price page, which is updated continuously.
Is this a speculative bubble in gold?
The classic signals of a bubble, such as public euphoria and disproportionate speculative volumes, do not dominate the current picture. Since late 2022, gold has broken through forty-one resistance levels, and each advance has been absorbed methodically rather than in a frenzy. The movement resembles a long-term readjustment in which gold regains its status as a strategic asset, carried by central banks, institutional investors and households alike. Even at $4,000 an ounce, the metal continues to be measured against a constant reality: the erosion of currencies. To understand why the metal historically preserves what money loses, the page on gold and purchasing power provides a documented analysis spanning several decades of monetary history.
Why are premiums on gold bars widening?
Premiums widen because demand for physical metal is rising faster than the available supply. The gap between the spot price and the real price paid by the buyer covers fabrication, logistics and scarcity, and each of these components is currently under pressure. Industrial recycling is not offsetting the rush towards direct ownership, and in refining workshops orders are rising faster than the inflow of raw material. The effect is most visible on the 5 to 100 gram formats, which are the most sought after by private investors. For buyers, the practical answer is to favour certified, traceable formats whose liquidity remains strong even when premiums fluctuate. The range of certified gold bars available at the agency covers every budget, from small bars to one-kilo ingots.
What is « leased metal » (gold leasing), and why is it risky in a rising market?
Gold leasing is a loan of physical metal that must be repaid in metal, not in money. The model works while prices are stable, but it becomes fragile when the price climbs durably: returning the same quantity of a more expensive metal melts the margin, hedging costs explode, and the premiums passed on to the end client become unsustainable. Several large financial groups built part of their business on this mechanism, which explains the current tensions over physical deliveries. For a private investor, the lesson is direct: owning the metal outright removes the counterparty risk entirely. The gold guide details these mechanisms and explains how to distinguish direct ownership from paper exposure before investing.
Is physical ownership of gold preferable to paper products?
Direct ownership offers sovereignty and operational independence: no issuer risk, no need for hedging, and a value backed by the real metal rather than by a promise. Paper products such as ETFs replicate the price of gold without delivering metal, which suits traders but leaves the holder dependent on a financial intermediary and on market plumbing. Those who hold their metal outright do not need to hedge, because the metal itself is the hedge. This is the philosophy Gold & Silver Company has championed for more than a decade. To move from theory to practice, the team at the agency in Dottignies-Mouscron presents the certified formats, the applicable quotations and the legal framework during a simple appointment, with or without prior booking.