# When gold falls, central banks buy: the gap that says a lot
Updated on September 27, 2026
Last week, the gold price fell by nearly 3%.
Gold is falling: a moderate decline, but a visible one and, as always, quickly commented on.
Some read it as a sign of weakness. Others, as the start of a summer correction.
But while the charts make waves on the surface, a very different dynamic is playing out in the depths: central banks, for their part, keep buying.
A silent divergence, but a structuring one.
And perhaps one of the most telling of this first half of 2025.
The market is selling… but not everyone
The reasons for the pullback are well known:
1. A temporary strengthening of the dollar, fuelled by better than expected US economic data
2. A rebound in US real rates, which makes gold less competitive in the very short term
3. Legitimate profit taking after a surge of nearly 30% since January
4. And a moderate geopolitical optimism around international trade relations… quickly contradicted
But while ETFs record outflows and some traders arbitrage, the most patient institutional players, the central banks, are reinforcing their positions.
Gold is falling, but central banks are stepping up their purchases
According to the latest report from OMFIF (Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum), one third of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 to 24 months.
The previous week, the World Gold Council revealed that 43% of official reserve managers intend to buy gold in 2025, against 29% last year. A clear progression, against a backdrop of partial dedollarisation of reserves.
And above all, both studies agree on one point:
Gold is today the most sought after monetary asset among central banks.
And the dollar is the only asset whose exposure they are seeking to reduce.
An unstable world does not produce certainties… but reflexes
Trade instability, digital taxation, strategic tensions and the return of unpredictable monetary policies (see Donald Trump’s recent statements on Canada) remind every power that no framework of exchange is guaranteed.
In this context, gold is not an offensive strategy, but a defensive one.
It does not aim for yield, but for independence in reserve.
And that is exactly what states are looking for today: room for manoeuvre outside the dollar system.
Gold is falling, but what it reveals runs deeper
Gold is falling. Central banks are buying.
This is not a contradiction. It is a gap signal between those who endure the market, and those who use the market.
Because in reality, it is not gold that is faltering:
it is operators navigating a zone of doubt, precisely where institutions, for their part, are anchoring themselves.
Understanding this gap means understanding that the current decline is less a threat than a window.
A silent window, which some let pass, while others buy, sheltered from the noise.
Frequently asked questions about gold
Why is gold falling if central banks are buying at the same time?
The two movements involve different actors with different time horizons. The recent decline of nearly 3% is explained by short term factors: a temporarily stronger dollar, a rebound in US real rates, and legitimate profit taking after a surge of nearly 30% since January. These flows come mainly from ETFs and traders, who react to weekly data. Central banks, by contrast, build their positions over years and buy regardless of short term fluctuations. Their purchases respond to a structural logic of reserve diversification, not to a market timing calculation. This is precisely what makes the gap so telling: those who endure the market sell, while those who use it buy.
What do the OMFIF and World Gold Council reports actually say?
Both institutions point in the same direction, and their convergence is what matters. According to the latest OMFIF report, one third of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves over the next 12 to 24 months. The World Gold Council, for its part, found that 43% of official reserve managers intend to buy gold in 2025, compared with 29% the previous year. Beyond the figures, the two studies agree on a deeper point: gold is today the most sought after monetary asset among central banks, while the dollar is the only asset whose exposure they are seeking to reduce. This double movement illustrates a partial dedollarisation of reserves that is now openly assumed.
Is gold a speculative investment for central banks?
No, and this distinction is essential to understanding current purchases. Central banks do not buy gold to capture a capital gain; they buy it to guarantee their independence. In a world marked by trade instability, digital taxation disputes, strategic tensions and unpredictable monetary policies, no framework of exchange is guaranteed any longer. Gold serves as a defensive strategy: it does not aim for yield, but for independence in reserve. Physical metal carries no counterparty risk, depends on no political promise, and cannot be frozen or devalued by a foreign decision. What states are seeking today is room for manoeuvre outside the dollar system, and gold is the instrument of that sovereignty.
What can a private saver learn from central banks’ behaviour?
The lesson is not to imitate their volumes, but their reasoning. When the most patient and best informed institutions on the planet accumulate physical metal while prices dip, they are treating the decline as a window rather than a threat. A private saver can apply the same logic at their own scale: favouring physical metal, certified and traceable, held for the long term rather than traded on short term movements. At Gold & Silver Company, every bar is delivered with its certificate of authenticity and complies with investment gold standards. You can explore our range of certified gold bars, consult our gold guide to structure a first acquisition, or book an appointment with our experts for personalised guidance, away from the noise.