Gold fell last week because US bond yields remain high, because the Federal Reserve, chaired by Kevin Warsh, is leaving the door open to further tightening, because the dollar is strong, and because investors caught by margin calls during the rout in technology stocks sold gold to raise cash. The US-Iran war and expensive oil are sustaining inflation, without reviving the metal for now. On Friday 23 October, the ounce fell below $4,000, its lowest since mid-July, nearly 29% below the January record.
- Record of 28 January 2026: $5,594.82 an ounce.
- Friday 23 October: fell below $4,000, the lowest since mid-July.
- Correction from the record: nearly 29%.
What forces pushed gold lower last week?
Three forces weighed: US yields, a strong dollar and, late in the week, forced sales by investors facing margin calls. The ounce has now fallen for two weeks in a row. On Friday 23 October 2026, it dropped below $4,000, its lowest since mid-July. In late October, the spot price is hovering around $4,000. On 28 January 2026, the metal had set a record at $5,594.82 an ounce. The correction from that peak reaches nearly 29%.
The most immediate competitor is US yields. On 7 October 2026, the US 10-year touched 5.35% and the 30-year 5.72%, their highest levels in 24 years. An easing followed: the 10-year fell back below 5% on 22 October, to 4.96%, its steepest daily fall since March 2023. Gold’s decline that week therefore did not come from rates. It came from forced sales: investors caught by margin calls during the rout in technology stocks sold the most liquid metal in their portfolios to raise cash. Oil at a five-month high sustained both inflation and the idea that rates would stay higher for longer. We have detailed this link between gold, rates and the dollar.
A strong dollar accompanies this movement. It makes the ounce more expensive for buyers outside the dollar zone and weighs on short-term demand. It is the classic mechanics of weeks in which the bond market sets the tempo.
What should we expect from the Fed on 27 and 28 October?
Unchanged rates, according to the markets, then a possible rise in December. The Federal Reserve is chaired by Kevin Warsh. On 16 September 2026, it raised its rates by 25 basis points. It was the first increase since July 2023. The meeting of 27 and 28 October 2026 is expected, according to the markets, to leave rates unchanged. Those same markets are then betting on a rise in December, with a cited probability of between 75% and 92%.
This sequence explains much of the nervousness around gold. Tightening already under way, an expected pause, then the possibility of another turn of the screw: the metal tolerates this sequence poorly. Paying no coupon, it struggles to compete with risk-free investments that now offer better returns.
Outside the United States, Japan also weighs. The governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, believes underlying inflation is close to 2%, which leaves the way open to rate rises. A world of less accommodative central banks reduces gold’s immediate appeal as a non-yielding asset. This says nothing about the metal’s long-term role. It merely describes the climate of the past week.
Why does the US-Iran war not prevent the decline?
The US-Iran conflict has been under way since late February 2026. Oil remains high. Inflation persists. On paper, this backdrop should support gold. That is the paradox of the week: geopolitical risk is very much present, but for now it is not prevailing against rates and the dollar.
Gold reacts to several forces at once. When real yields rise, they can outweigh the safe-haven reflex. That is what we have been observing in recent days. Expensive oil and the war sustain inflation. They do not erase the opportunity cost of a metal that pays no coupon.
The US budgetary backdrop, however, has not disappeared. The federal deficit for fiscal 2026, which closed on 30 September, stands at $1,992 billion, against $1,775 billion the previous year. Total public debt reached $40,329 billion as of 14 October 2026, according to Treasury FiscalData. These figures do not explain the week’s fall. They are a reminder of why the debate about gold cannot be reduced to three sessions of decline. For a saver, understanding this interaction matters more than automatically associating war with a rising gold price.
Who keeps buying during the correction?
While the spot price retreats, central banks continue to buy; gold ETFs, for their part, recorded outflows in the week of 19 October (around 16 tonnes, according to SPDR data), according to Morningstar. Institutional flows do not follow the calendar of a weekly session.
At Gold & Silver Company, we observe that weeks of decline often bring the same questions into the branch: has the gold market turned, or is the metal simply changing hands? The gap between a price that is correcting and official buyers who are accumulating speaks volumes. We have already explored this gap when gold falls but central banks are buying.
A strategist quoted by Morningstar, Peter Kinsella (Union Bancaire Privée), includes a possible revaluation of US gold reserves among the upside risks. Morningstar, for its part, points out that there is currently no sign of any such intention on the part of the US government. In other words: an underlying theme exists, it does not explain the past week’s decline, and it justifies no headlong rush.
Silver is trading at around $54 an ounce, platinum at around $1,550 and palladium at around $1,050. Precious metals move together, each at its own pace. Gold remains the most closely watched gauge.
What does this fall change for an individual who wants physical gold?
A price back to nearly 29% below the January record: these are levels that institutional buyers are using to accumulate. For a private buyer, the key is not to guess the bottom. Nobody knows it. The key is to understand the mechanics of the price, then to talk it through at a branch.
The spot price is only a reference. On a coin or a bar, the spread and the premium are added. It is this trio that determines what you actually pay. Our page on understanding the price, the spread and the premium sets out the basics without jargon.
Gold & Silver Company is an independent neo-foundry, a refinery accredited by the Royal Mint of Belgium. The supply chain is European, based on recycled gold, with headquarters in Dottignies. At the branch, we look at the day’s price, the format (coin or bar) and the pace of purchase. Regular purchases smooth the entry price. They avoid chasing perfect timing.
There is no urgency, and no single signal to watch for. A concrete conversation, based on a dated price, is worth more than a scenario read too quickly. You can book an appointment at the branch whenever you wish.
Frequently asked questions about the fall in the gold price
Is this the right time to buy gold?
Nobody knows the bottom. On 23 October 2026, the ounce fell below $4,000. In late October, it is hovering around $4,000, still nearly 29% below the record of 28 January. These levels are attracting central banks, which continue to buy; gold ETFs recorded outflows in the week of 19 October. For a private buyer, ‘the right time’ depends on need, format and horizon, not on a single week’s movement. At the branch in Dottignies, we set out the price, compare a coin and a bar, and discuss regular purchases that smooth the entry price. No pressure, simply clarity about what you are actually buying.
Will gold continue to fall?
No one knows. The markets expect Fed rates to remain unchanged on 27 and 28 October, then a possible rise in December (cited probabilities of between 75% and 92%). Ten-year yields, still close to 5% after a peak of 5.35% on 7 October, remain a headwind. The US-Iran war and high oil prices pull in the other direction. Two forces, one price. The honest answer is to acknowledge the uncertainty, then decide whether physical gold has a place in your plans, regardless of the next session. That is precisely the kind of conversation we have at the branch, with no promise of a trajectory.
Why are central banks buying if the price is falling?
Because they are not buying the week. They are buying a reserve. Morningstar reports that central banks continue to accumulate despite the decline; gold ETFs recorded outflows in the week of 19 October. Two weeks of falling prices and a move below $4,000 on 23 October do not change a long-term mandate. For a private buyer, this is not an instruction to follow suit. It is contextual information: a metal that is correcting in dollar terms is not a deserted metal. At the branch, we translate this into concrete choices, coin or bar, rather than into a reading of official flows.
Should you wait for a lower price before buying coins or bars?
Waiting for the bottom means betting on a date that nobody holds. Regular purchases smooth the entry price. They turn a week of doubt into an average. With physical gold, the spot price is only one leg of the price: the spread and the premium count just as much. In Dottignies, we open the day’s price, look at investment coins and bars, and calibrate the quantity to what you actually want to hold. The aim is not to replay the session of 23 October, but to understand what you are taking home.
Should you sell your gold now that the price is falling?
Not as a reflex. A fall in the price erases neither the weight nor the purity of your metal: it changes the day’s price, not the substance. The mechanics are simple: weight, multiplied by purity, multiplied by the price of the moment, checked on scales in front of you. Some people sell because they had planned to, whether the price is high or not. Others wait. Both positions are understandable; neither is decided on a single week of market movement. At the branch, we begin by weighing and appraising what you have, free of charge, then we look together at whether the timing suits you. You leave with a clear figure and no obligation, never with any pressure.
Anaïs, Production Director at Gold & Silver Company
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